Vikings Host Bills in Final Week 9 Game as Model Predicts Defensive Stand

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, and its record for top-rated picks since 2024 stands at 60 wins and 51 losses. Bettors following those selections at $100 stakes have seen profits exceeding $5,000. The model now directs attention to the final contest of the Week 9 NFL slate, featuring the Minnesota Vikings hosting the Buffalo Bills on Monday Night Football.

The matchup pits the league's top scoring offense against its best defensive unit. The Bills lead the NFL in points per game, while the Vikings have allowed just 13.3 points per game. Despite the offensive disparity, the model sides with the defense. It projects the Vikings to cover the 3.5-point spread in 53% of all simulations.

The data supporting the defensive pick highlights the Bills' struggles on the road. Buffalo has covered a 3-point spread in only one of its three away games this season. The Vikings, conversely, remain 3-0 at home. They were the last undefeated team in the league before dropping a 19-15 decision to the Detroit Lions last week. The model expects Josh Allen to face a stiff challenge from the Minnesota front seven and secondary.

Beyond the team total, two experts from the SportsLine team have selected player props. Doug, a prop betting expert, favors Khalil Shakir to exceed 4.5 receptions. He notes that Shakir serves as a safety valve for Allen when defenses blitz. Shakir has been targeted on 15 of his 51 routes during blitzes, catching 11 of those passes.

Doug points out that Shakir leads the Bills with a 0.29 target rate per route run. He argues the Vikings are particularly dangerous for a slot receiver because they blitz 69% of the time, nearly double the rate of any other team. Their two-high safety and zone-heavy scheme also aligns well with Shakir's route tree.

Alex Selesnick, known as PropStarz, backs Justin Jefferson to surpass 75.5 receiving yards. Selesnick highlights that Carson Wentz will start at quarterback for Buffalo. He describes the chemistry between Wentz and Jefferson as very good, creating an excellent matchup in what should be a competitive game environment.

Betting these three picks as a same-game parlay at BetMGM Sportsbook offers a payout of +400. This odds structure means a $100 wager could yield a $400 profit, subject to change. The offer is available to new users who enter the bonus code CBSSPORTS.

The bonus structure provides $150 in bonus bets if a new user's first wager wins. If the qualifying wager loses, the user receives up to $1,500 in bonus bets. Availability of the offer depends on the bettor's location. The sportsbook offers tools for responsible gaming, including live chat, gaming limits, and timeout options.

Bettors can also access contact information for helplines such as 1-800-MY-RESET, available 24/7 via call or text. The SportsLine team continues to lock in picks across the NFL, NBA, college football, college basketball, UFC, and NHL. Their model simulates each of these games 10,000 times to generate projections.