Cost of living drives voters as Democrats hold 8-point House lead

The path to congressional control for Democrats in the 2026 midterms is open, but the margin is narrowing. A new poll conducted by Marist for NPR and PBS News shows Democrats holding an 8-point advantage on the generic congressional ballot among likely voters. This lead suggests a net gain in seats, yet the data reveals structural headwinds that could limit the size of that wave.

The primary driver for voters is financial strain. Thirty-eight percent of respondents reported their personal finances have worsened over the past year, while 44 percent said they remain unchanged. Shun Maurice, a 47-year-old independent in Arizona, cited high food and gas prices as a daily burden. "They're too expensive for everybody, no matter who you voted for," Maurice said. "They're just too expensive for the American people in general, and I don't like that."

President Trump’s standing remains low, with 59% of likely voters disapproving of his job performance. Fifty-three percent strongly disapprove, a figure tied with last month's high. However, disapproval does not guarantee a crossover to the opposing party. Matthew Schroder, a 38-year-old independent in North Carolina, is voting for Republican Michael Whatley against Democrat Roy Cooper for Senate. Schroder opposes the Democratic embrace of democratic socialism more than he supports Trump's performance.

Historical context suggests Democrats have gained at least 30 seats when leading by this margin. Previous cycles saw leads of 7 points in 2018 and 12 points in 2006. Those elections occurred before recent redistricting efforts. Trump asked Republican states to redraw maps to gain seats, a move Democrats followed. Both waves of redistricting have tilted the balance in favor of Republicans, creating a structural disadvantage for the party seeking to flip the House.

Enthusiasm levels offer a mixed signal. Democratic likely voters are 10 points more likely than Republicans to be very enthusiastic about voting, with 71% reporting high enthusiasm compared to 61%. Yet, key Democratic demographics show lower engagement. Only 42% of likely voters under 45 and 53% of non-white voters are very enthusiastic. In contrast, 68% of MAGA voters and 66% of white women without college degrees report high enthusiasm.

Attention to the election has also equalized. Last month, Democrats paid closer attention to the race than Republicans. Now, 51% of Democratic likely voters and 50% of Republican likely voters say they are following the election very closely. This parity in attention, combined with the 8-point ballot lead, points to a competitive race where turnout in specific demographics will determine the final seat count.