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New poll shows billionaire tax falling behind as election nears

By Lynn La, CalMatters ·

This story was originally published by CalMatters. Sign up for their newsletters.
A “Tax the Ultra-Rich Now” bus parked in San Francisco on Oct. 3, 2026. Photo by Manuel Orbegozo for CalMatters

Californians’ appetite for a first-in-the-nation wealth tax appears to be waning.

With less than a week before Election Day, support for Proposition 40, a proposed billionaire tax, is now under water, according to the latest poll by Public Policy Institute of California. Published Tuesday, the survey found that 46% of 1,086 likely voters support the tax, while 52% don’t.

That’s a notable change from last month, when Prop. 40 proponents held a slim 52% majority. The billionaire tax is by far the biggest and most expensive fight on the ballot. As of mid-October, wealthy people who oppose it have raised more than $205 million to fight the tax, including Google co-founder Sergey Brin, who has poured at least $102 million.

Still, Prop. 40 supporters remain undeterred. In response to the PPIC poll, Suzanne Jimenez, the chief of staff of Service Employees International Union-United Healthcare Workers West, the union behind the measure, said “large majorities of Democratic voters” continue to support it.

  • Jimenez, in an email to CalMatters: “Even after months of the most controversial billionaires on the planet spending millions to spread misinformation about it, a clear majority of voters support asking about 250 billionaires to pay a modest, one-time tax to keep … healthcare affordable for millions of Californians.”

Meanwhile, a pair of related ballot measures intended to negate the billionaire tax could go either way.

Prop. 42, with 51% in support among those polled, holds onto a narrow lead. It would bar new taxes on personal property and assets and prohibit retroactive taxes. Prop. 41, which would impose limits to certain new state taxes, appears to be falling short with 48% support.

Voters seem to be more favorable on five other ballot measures. A majority of survey participants said they would vote yes on: 

  • Prop. 1, the $11.25 billion housing bond
  • Prop. 2, which would increase the amount of tax revenue the state can put in savings 
  • Prop. 3, which would permanently extend an income tax for high-earning households 
  • Prop. 37, which would create a $25 billion fund to help homebuyers
  • Prop. 38, which would dedicate $8 billion in bonds to fund immunology research

As for the governor’s race, Democratic candidate Xavier Becerra continues his lead in the polls with PPIC reporting that 61% of likely voters would vote for him, compared to 37% for Republican Steve Hilton.


We’re bringing our voter guide to life through VotingMatters events across California, in collaboration with on-the-ground partners. We’re holding two events today: In Mariposa at the Mariposa County Government Center and in Santa Barbara at the Louise Lowry Davis Center.


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Where Trump’s CA election lawsuit stands

A polling station clerk sanitizes a voting station at the Monsignor Ramon Garcia Recreation Center in East Los Angeles on Nov. 8, 2022. Pablo Unzueta for CalMatters

A federal judge appeared skeptical about the Trump administration’s demands that California set aside 20,000 ballots from alleged noncitizens, but won’t likely rule on the matter until after the Nov. 3 election, report CalMatters’ Ryan Sabalow and Nigel Duara.

In a potential setback for President Donald Trump, U.S. District Judge David O. Carter on Tuesday raised concerns that the administration’s efforts to stop noncitizens from illegally voting by ordering the state’s elections officials to sequester their ballots could disenfranchise “valid voters.” 

Though he’s expected to issue a formal ruling today, Carter’s final ruling might not come until after another hearing that will take place in two weeks. Carter also suggested that his ruling would prohibit federal authorities from threatening elections officials with criminal charges if they didn’t comply with Trump’s demands.

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Could election results help LA fire survivors?

Construction workers build a house in Altadena on Aug. 3, 2026. Photo by Jules Hotz for CalMatters

Survivors of the Eaton and Palisades fires are running out of money to rebuild their lives, and the outcome of the midterm elections may affect whether federal aid will come, writes CalMatters’ Levi Sumagaysay.

Nearly two years since the fires ripped through the Los Angeles area, the Trump administration has been slow to release funding to California, and it didn’t include L.A. County wildfire relief in its budget request for Congress this summer. 

It’s also unclear when the billions of dollars in long-term disaster recovery money the state has requested will come — if at all. Last week, outlets reported that the Federal Emergency Management Agency told states they will need to handle most disasters themselves.

U.S. Reps. Judy Chu and Norma Torres, both Southern California Democrats, said that if Democrats flip the House in November, federal aid could roll out to California and other states hit by disaster.

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And lastly: Fresno dad suddenly deported

Luis Arreguin stands at the Cathedral of Mexicali, in Mexicali, Baja California, Mexico, on Oct. 21, 2026. Photo by Daniel Resendiz for CalMatters

Luis Arreguin, a 54-year-old Fresno resident, was on his way to work as a skilled laborer on Oct. 1 when federal immigration enforcement agents arrested him. Sixteen days later, agents deported him to Mexico — where he hasn’t been since he was a kid — in a stunning example of the dizzying speed in which Trump’s deportation machine operates. Said Arreguin: “My whole life got destroyed.” Read more from CalMatters’ Wendy Fry.


California Voices

CalMatters columnist Dan Walters: A Sacramento-area community college tries to fool voters into passing a new $1.1 billion bond issue this election by saying the proposal would not increase tax rates, which is untrue.


Other things worth your time:

Some stories may require a subscription to read.


Inside the billionaires’ war against CA’s proposed wealth tax // New York Times (gift link)

FBI raids billionaire’s Beverly Hills mansion in connection with Eric Swalwell probe, sources say // Los Angeles Times (paywall)

Parts of CA’s coast are vanishing 70 feet at a time // San Francisco Chronicle (gift link)

Parents rack up credit card debt to pay for childcare // LAist (free)

Here’s how much your CA school district spent in arts funds // EdSource (free)

Tiny Lake Havasu City now a hot spot for CA millionaire renters // SFGATE (free)

New data center moratorium in San Diego // KPBS (free)

Voters in Sacramento suburbs shifted to the left in Trump era // Abridged (free)

This story was originally published by CalMatters and is republished under its terms.

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