EU leaders set to demand more UK aid for Ukraine before November summit

Ukraine faces a €70 billion shortfall in 2027 for defense and civilian needs, according to Kyiv’s government. European Union leaders plan to address this gap when Prime Minister Andy Burnham attends a summit in Brussels on November 20. They will urge him to increase Britain’s financial contribution to the war effort. The meeting follows similar requests directed at Canada and Japan that have not yet been met.

The European Commission reports that the EU and its member states currently pay for 80% of Ukraine’s financial needs. Commission President Ursula von der Leyen stated that a fair share for the EU is two-thirds, with other allies covering the rest. She told reporters last week that the EU will continue to lead but urgently needs other partners to step up. She did not name specific countries during that briefing.

Von der Leyen will first meet Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney at an EU-Canada summit in Montreal next week. She will make a similar request for additional aid at that meeting. She will then meet Burnham, along with European Council President António Costa, in Brussels. The timing is sensitive for the British government because Chancellor John Healey is preparing his first budget this week. Healey is weighing calls for more spending against rising borrowing costs and a weakening economic outlook. He stated earlier this month that he is working on different ways to step up support for Ukraine through military, diplomatic, and economic means.

The EU agreed to a €90 billion loan for Ukraine last year to cover two-thirds of Kyiv’s funding for 2026 and 2027. Russia’s escalation of attacks has increased Ukraine’s costs as the war enters its fifth winter. EU officials have prioritized non-EU G7 members, specifically the UK, Canada, and Japan, for additional aid. They may also approach Switzerland, South Korea, Australia, and New Zealand for further support.

The British government says it has committed £25 billion to Ukraine, including £16 billion in military aid. The Kiel Institute’s Ukraine Support Tracker lists the UK as the fourth-largest donor, behind the US, Germany, and France. Weighted by GDP, the UK contributed 0.86% of national income to the war. France contributed 1.1% and Germany contributed 1.5%. Denmark contributed 4.2% and Estonia contributed 3.8%. The UK’s contribution is closer to France and Germany’s once their payments to EU programs are removed.

Ukraine is one of several topics at the November 20 summit. Leaders are expected to conclude three agreements there. These include a food and animal health deal to reduce Brexit paperwork, a linkage of EU and UK emissions trading schemes to protect British industry from carbon taxes, and a youth mobility scheme. The youth scheme would allow people aged 18 to 30 to live, work, travel, and study across the Channel. The Commission proposed deferring the issue of university tuition fees to technical talks within six months of the summit. The UK wants to charge EU students the international rate, which is about four times the domestic fee. The EU wants to return to pre-Brexit rates where EU students paid home fees.

Senior EU sources believe they retain bargaining power because the food and emissions deals will not start until a youth mobility agreement is reached. One EU diplomat described the three elements as a gift to the UK, but not a massive one. That diplomat added that the leverage lies in the UK’s need for these deals. A second diplomat noted that there is no consensus among the 27 member states to postpone the tuition issue. That diplomat said there is no clear majority to drop the issue for six months.