No. 1 Georgia hosts No. 22 Missouri as projection model leans toward the Over

The top-ranked Georgia Bulldogs will try to firm up their position atop the SEC standings when they host the No. 22 Missouri Tigers on Saturday afternoon. Kickoff is set for 3:30 p.m. ET at Sanford Stadium in Athens, Ga.

The two teams arrive off very different Week 10 results. Georgia rolled past Ole Miss 42-7, while Missouri is coming off a 34-20 loss to the Texas Longhorns.

Georgia (8-1, 6-1) has been at its best in the biggest spots, going 4-0 against ranked opponents this season and 4-1 on its home field in 2026. Missouri (6-3, 3-3) sits tied for eighth in the conference and has gone 2-2 on the road.

The Tigers at least avoided any logistical trouble ahead of the matchup. Missouri landed before the FAA ground stoppage on Friday, so no travel disruptions are expected to impact the game.

Oddsmakers expect the Bulldogs to control the contest. Georgia is a 16.5-point favorite in the latest Missouri vs. Georgia odds, with the over/under set at 48.5 points.

The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every game 10,000 times, is leaning toward the Over on that total. The Over has hit in seven of Georgia's last 10 games, is 5-0 over the Bulldogs' last five home games, and is 3-0 when Georgia faces teams scoring between 25 and 32 points.

The scoring profiles help explain that lean. Georgia leads the SEC at 41.1 points per game, while Missouri ranks ninth in the conference at 30.2.

The model projects Missouri quarterback Austin Simmons to throw for more than 215 yards and one touchdown. Simmons has completed 61.8% of his passes this season for 2,204 yards and 18 touchdowns with two interceptions.

Georgia quarterback Gunner Stockton is projected to top 235 passing yards with two scores. He has completed 70.9% of his throws for 1,857 yards and 20 touchdowns against four interceptions on the year.

In all, the model is calling for 51 combined points, making the Over the value side 62% of the time. It also says one side of the spread hits in more than 60% of simulations.