Israel's 120-Seat Race: A Stalemate Looms Over Netanyahu

Voters in Israel will cast ballots on Tuesday for all 120 seats in the Knesset, a parliament that determines the nation's leadership. The vote comes after three years of multi-front conflict that has left the country divided and exhausted. Current polling indicates that neither the ruling coalition nor its opposition will likely secure a decisive majority. This lack of a clear winner means the government will depend on post-election negotiations that could last for weeks.

Yohanan Plesner, president of the Israel Democracy Institute, described the current political landscape as indecisive. He stated that an ambiguous outcome is the most probable result of the vote. The election is the first held since the October 7, 2023, attacks by Hamas, which Israeli authorities have identified as the deadliest day in the country's history since 1948. The war has expanded beyond Gaza to include Lebanon and Syria, with two direct rounds of conflict already fought with Iran.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is seeking to retain his position as Israel's longest-serving leader. He is running under the Likud party and aims to rebuild his current coalition of ultranationalist and religious partners. His primary argument to voters is that he is the only leader who can form a government without relying on Arab parties. He also argues that Israel needs him to finish its military campaigns in the region, particularly regarding Iran.

US President Donald Trump offered a vocal endorsement of Netanyahu last week. Trump warned that if Netanyahu does not remain in power, the United States might have to take on more of the burden of the war against Iran. Trump stated that he was not inclined to do that work himself if Israel had a different leader. Netanyahu has since used this support to argue that only he can work with the US to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon. His campaign slogan, which rhymes in Hebrew, translates to a choice between a right-wing government and a nuclear bomb or a Palestinian state.

The main alternative to Netanyahu is a diverse group of parties known as the change bloc. These parties span the political spectrum from Arab to right and left, united by their goal to remove the incumbent prime minister. Gadi Eisenkot, a former military chief and leader of the centrist Yashar party, is the front-runner to lead this bloc. Eisenkot lost his son and two nephews in the Gaza war and served on the war cabinet during its first year. His party has a significantly higher proportion of female candidates compared to the male-dominated Netanyahu coalition.

Eisenkot has criticized Netanyahu for relying on fear and threats, specifically referencing an AI-generated image of a mushroom cloud over Tel Aviv that Netanyahu posted online. Eisenkot promises to launch a state inquiry into the intelligence failure that allowed the October 7 attack, a step Netanyahu has previously blocked. Uzi Aharoni, a 73-year-old engineer from Tel Aviv, supports Eisenkot because he views him as an honest leader who will prioritize the public over his own family interests.

Voter turnout will be a critical factor in deciding the election's outcome. Historically, turnout among Likud supporters and Arab-Israeli voters fluctuates the most. Arab citizens make up approximately 20 percent of Israel's population. Plesner noted that higher Arab turnout reduces the likelihood that Netanyahu can form another government with his current far-right allies. Jehad Abomoch, a cafe owner in the Arab city of Baqa al Gharbiya, said many in his community feel they have no future under the current administration and will vote to prevent another term.

Two new parties are also competing in the election, both of which are hovering near the threshold required to win seats in the Knesset. These parties are focused on challenging the alliance between Netanyahu and ultra-Orthodox groups. They are demanding that these religious parties accept mandatory military service requirements. This issue cuts through Netanyahu's traditional support base and could tip the balance of power in either direction. If neither bloc wins a clear majority, lawmakers may switch sides or form a minority government. If negotiations fail, the country may face a rerun, a scenario that occurred five times between 2019 and 2022.