Serbia's new government expects to spend months on domestic fixes before changing foreign policy

Serbia’s Student List government will prioritize repairing domestic institutions over altering the country’s foreign policy in the immediate term, according to regional analysts. The opposition movement secured a historic victory in Sunday’s elections, ending fourteen years of rule by Aleksandar Vucic and the Serbian Progressive Party. As Belgrade prepares for presidential elections in December, international observers are monitoring whether the transition will prompt a rapid pivot toward the West.

Aleksandar Popov, director of the Centre for Regionalism in Novi Sad, stated that questions regarding relations with neighboring countries will not be on the immediate agenda. The new authorities must first address a system that has captured democratic institutions, including the judiciary, prosecution service, police, and media sector. Popov described this period as "tidying up at home" before "solving problems with the neighbors."

Relations with Croatia remain complicated by frequent sharp exchanges. During recent mass protests in Serbia, Vucic accused Zagreb of organizing a "color revolution." Popov noted that while relations are not frozen, they are marked by a pattern of producing internal and external enemies. He explained that Belgrade and Zagreb often clashed publicly while quietly converging on issues in Bosnia and Herzegovina, where Belgrade supported Republika Srpska leader Milorad Dodik and Zagreb favored a third entity.

Vuk Vuksanovic, a lecturer in foreign policy at King’s College London, predicted that foreign policy will transform the least under the new government. He argued that many international and domestic structures shaping Serbian foreign policy will remain in place. Moscow never fully trusted Vucic but viewed him as "the devil they knew." Although Russian influence will face a blow due to reduced media glorification and downgraded intelligence cooperation, the new government is unlikely to adopt a hawkish stance overnight.

Vuksanovic asserted that Serbian interests can continue to be served by ties with Russia. The country still requires preferential gas prices, and the Kosovo dispute remains unresolved. He stated that the new government will not see value in joining EU sanctions or adopting a hostile posture toward Moscow. Regarding Ukraine, Serbia will maintain its policy of not recognizing the annexation of Crimea and Donbas, though the future of ammunition deliveries remains uncertain after the opposition criticized Vucic’s weapons sales to Kyiv.

Bosko Jaksic, a foreign policy analyst, noted that Serbia’s close relationship with Israel will face scrutiny but not be severed. The new government will re-examine recently concluded contracts, primarily concerning Serbian ammunition exports to Israel and Israeli surveillance equipment imports. Jaksic observed that Netanyahu’s government has lost another authoritarian ally in Europe following Viktor Orban’s removal in Hungary. However, Serbia’s future stance will also depend on the outcome of Israel’s own elections.

Popov expressed hope that a government led by experts and civic leaders would work toward stabilizing the region and reviving Serbia’s hopes of joining the European Union. He stated that the previous government sabotaged EU integration and that the EU will not accept a country without good neighborly relations. The new government’s task will be to repair those damaged ties. Analysts agree that the international community should expect a period of intense internal reform rather than sudden geopolitical realignments.