Vucic Chases Premiership as Flawed Voter Data Complicates October 25 Serbia Election

Aleksandar Vucic is running for prime minister in Serbia's parliamentary election scheduled for October 25. He stepped down as president in late September to avoid seeking a third term in that office. The move positions him to return to the role he previously held from 2014 to 2017. This contest marks a shift from his fourteen-year dominance of the country's political scene.

The race pits Vucic's ruling party against an opposition movement born from student protests. Vladimir Bilcik, a former European Parliament rapporteur for Serbia, characterized the upcoming vote as the first in more than a decade with a genuinely uncertain outcome. Current polling indicates the electorate is split sharply between supporters of the government coalition and those backing the student-led challengers.

Questions about the integrity of the ballot have grown louder following a review by the RFE/RL Balkan Service. Investigators found that approximately 500,000 registered voters lack complete addresses in the official records. These entries often omit specific street names or house numbers. The review also identified hundreds of voters listed at public facilities like social welfare centers or at residential locations that could not physically hold so many people.

These data gaps echo concerns raised during the 2023 election. International observers for that cycle reported irregularities, including the transport of voters from neighboring Bosnia-Hercegovina and instances of intimidation. The current election occurs just days before the second anniversary of the Novi Sad tragedy. On November 1, 2024, a canopy at the city's railway station collapsed, killing sixteen people. The disaster sparked nationwide protests over corruption in a construction project led by Chinese businesses.

Tensions peaked on March 15, 2025, when authorities allegedly used a sonic weapon against peaceful demonstrators. Vucic announced his resignation and the early election schedule after another student protest in June. The opposition candidate list is headed by cardiologist Ilija Srdanovic. The movement consists largely of nonpartisan figures, including university professors, and has stated that Srdanovic's position does not guarantee a premiership if they win.

The government claims it implemented all recommendations from the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) after its criticism of the 2023 vote. The OSCE deployed 300 observers to Serbia for the current cycle. An interim report from the organization contradicted the government's assertion that the process is fully aligned with their previous findings. RFE/RL investigations noted that the number of eligible voters in Bosnia and Kosovo increased before the vote. These regions are viewed as key sources of support for Vucic's Progressive Party among ethnic Serbs.

Four employees of Serbia-funded institutions in Kosovo told RFE/RL that they faced pressure to vote for the ruling party. A similar practice was documented in several Serbian municipalities. The political environment is further strained by allegations of illegal surveillance. A statement from the US Senate's Foreign Relations Committee on October 21 cited reports of illegal monitoring of opposition members. Researchers from the Serbian nonprofit SHARE and Toronto University alleged that at least sixteen cases of the Pegasus surveillance software were used in 2026, a tool that is illegal in Serbia.

Government officials have denied targeting political rivals with the spyware. International observers have noted a decline in freedoms in Serbia over the past decade, a trend confirmed by the latest Freedom House report. Some US lawmakers have warned that Moscow may play an active role in the election. Russian President Vladimir Putin has personally expressed support for Vucic ahead of the ballot.