Midterm Voting: 42 Million Ballots Cast as Democrats Lead Early Tally

More than 42 million Americans have already cast their ballots for the upcoming midterms. Michael McDonald, a political scientist at the University of Florida Election Lab, noted that this pace resembles the 2018 election, a period he described as the "blue wave." McDonald said the current data suggests the United States could approach record turnout levels.

The early voting numbers reveal a distinct partisan gap. Democrats account for 44% of the early votes, while Republicans make up about 31%. McDonald attributed this disparity to higher engagement among registered Democrats and unaffiliated voters. He observed that registered Republicans have not shown the same level of early participation.

Demographic shifts are also visible in the data. McDonald pointed to increased early voting rates among young voters and minority groups. He predicted that the 2026 electorate will be the most diverse in U.S. midterm history, citing high engagement from African Americans, Hispanics, and Asian Americans. He noted that white voters have not shown the same early intensity.

However, the data has limitations. Not all states require party registration, and some do not emphasize early voting. McDonald cited states like Maine, Iowa, Kansas, and Nebraska, where only about a third of votes may be cast early. These states will likely differ significantly from mail-in voting hubs or states with large in-person early voting operations.

McDonald acknowledged that Republicans will likely increase their share of the vote on Election Day itself. The final results will not be announced until after polls close on Tuesday, November 3.