Democrats sweep midterms with 18-point margin as Trump approval hits 36%
The party won the House and Senate on Tuesday, with voters in Texas and other red states driving a margin of victory far larger than pre-election polls predicted.
By Priya Marino ·
Democrats won both chambers of Congress on Tuesday with a margin that exceeded pre-election projections.
Three facts define the scale of the Democratic victory and the factors that drove voters to the polls.
First, President Donald Trump’s low approval rating became the central issue of the race. An average of polls showed his approval at 36%, down from 48% since the start of the Iran war. A broadcast network and Associated Press voter poll found that 62% of voters disapproved of his job performance. Two-thirds of respondents said his policies worsened economic conditions, and 62% said he prioritizes his own interests over the country’s.
Second, Republican redistricting efforts in Texas failed to protect seats. Democrats swept the state ballot, with James Talarico winning the Senate race by 12 points, or 1.1 million votes. He is the first Democrat to represent Texas in the Senate since 1988. Incoming Governor Gina Hinojosa won by 7 percentage points, and Democrats flipped two congressional districts that Trump won by at least 14 points in 2024. Republicans spent more than $413 million on the Texas Senate race and still lost.
Third, the national margin of victory was at least 18 points, far above the 8-point lead shown in generic congressional ballot polls. The voter poll indicated that 68% of Hispanic respondents disapproved of how Immigration and Customs Enforcement handles its job. This shift in the Latino electorate helped drive Democratic gains in South Texas and other states.
The election results set up a new political landscape for the 2028 presidential cycle. New York Senator Chuck Schumer, who may seek the Senate majority leader role again, promised that relief is on the way for working families. However, Democrats do not hold a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate. The party now faces the challenge of governing without a unified executive branch, as President Trump posted an image of a red hat with the word VETO on his social media platform just before midnight on election night.
