54 million voters cast ballots ahead of US midterm polls

More than 54 million Americans cast ballots before polls closed today. That figure represents nearly half of the total votes recorded in the previous midterm election. Vote counting begins tonight, with initial results expected from Kentucky and Indiana at 6 p.m. Eastern Time.

Available data indicates Democrats enter the final day with a double-digit advantage. However, the outcome hinges on how many Republicans vote in person on Election Day. The Republican Party votes overwhelmingly in person on the day of the election, and numerous red states and districts remain in play.

Democrats are favored to win control of the House of Representatives. They need to flip only three seats to secure the majority. The political environment has shifted in their favor over the past month. Republicans attempted to protect their position through rare mid-decade redistricting, but that strategy may not be sufficient to keep the chamber.

The Senate race presents more uncertainty. Democrats must flip four seats to gain control, a scenario that seemed unlikely at the start of this cycle. Strong Democratic recruits and a difficult national environment for Republicans have made a shift possible. Democrats are currently favored to take one seat in North Carolina.

Beyond North Carolina, the remaining Senate races are either toss-ups or slight favorites for Republicans. Apart from Maine, the five toss-up seats held by Republicans are in states President Donald Trump won by double digits in 2024. Trump has campaigned heavily in these red states ahead of the vote to turn out his base.

Michigan is the top target for Republicans. If they hold that seat, the calculus for Democrats changes. High Republican turnout could limit Democratic gains to one seat. Low turnout among Republican voters could result in the loss of six or seven seats, handing Democrats control of the Senate.

Results will not be immediate for all races. States are expected to count votes in many close contests. It could take days or weeks to know the final outcomes, requiring patience as ballots are processed.